[RC5] Prediction updated for month of August.

Ray Booysen rj_booysen at rjb.za.net
Mon Aug 2 06:54:26 EDT 2004


Daniel Quintiliani wrote:

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>>On Sun, 1 Aug 2004, Daniel Quintiliani wrote:
>>    
>>
>>>The stats system would be able to get a much better estimate than I 
>>>would because the graph keeps track of every day's keyrate and I'm only 
>>>looking at the first day of the month.
>>>      
>>>
>>Maybe you've already considered this, but I thought the stats varied 
>>considerably based on the day of the week.  The first of the month this 
>>month is on a weekend which are historicly low keyratewise while July 1 
>>was in the middle of the week which are histoiricly higher.
>>
>>    
>>
>
>Good idea. First I fixed a few bugs with the spreadsheet (bad estimates of the
>graph, an extra month for some reason).
>
>Next, I split it into half-months rather than months and looked at the middle of the 
>month as well as the month to give a better estimate.
>
>y = 42.817Ln(x) - 1.772
>R^2 = 0.8589
>
>That gives 461 years 1 month from Dec 2002 for a better estimate. A 58 year difference...
>
>So, I guess we can say that RC5-72 will probably be finished in about 400-500 years.
>
>I will test the spreadsheet for a while longer and then maybe submit an enhancement
>request.
>
>- -Dan
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Would it be possible to get a copy of the spreadsheet.  I would be 
interested to have a look.

Regards
Ray Booysen

-- 
Ray Booysen
rj_booysen at rjb.za.net




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