[RC5] RC5-72 progress

Daniel Quintiliani coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Fri Jul 30 05:09:49 EDT 2004


> Hello nations :)
> 
>   Hmmm.. I want to ask about our RC5-72 today progress: how long will
>   it gets (I mean how much time) to complete RC5-72 project?
> 
>   I  can't  calculate  it  because I haven't got any information about
>   increasing  of  CPU power. Where can I get an average count of Mkeys
>   on which RC5-72 project increases every month (for example). Beacuse
>   if  you count an average time of completing RC5-72 using today's CPU
>   power  we  can  get  about  1,000  years.  But  if  we  pognose some
>   coefficient  by which CPU power increases we can guess how time tith
>   project wil get.
> 

Funny you asked, I was just recently investigating that question myself. 

We decided a while ago that Moore's Law (exponential growth of processing power, if it were true 
for RC5-72, it would take 16-18 years to finish) didn't (necessarily) apply according to the 
graphs at http://www1.distributed.net/~pstadt/rc5-72/ . 
So I recently decided to go into Excel and plot the Gkeys/sec at every month from 12/02 until this 
June.

I also calculated the average keys done per month using the following formula:

Gkeys/sec * 1000000000*60*60*24*(365.25/12)

I made a chart and set up a power trendline. I got this formula:

y = 43.34x^0.4438

I used that formula to predict the average keys done per month up until 912 years, the longest possible 
time that RC5-72 could take.
I summed up the average keys per month and then came to the conclusion that at the current rate of 
increasing processor power, RC5-72 will reach 100% in about...

169-170 YEARS! (after Dec 2002)
Wow! We'll all be dead by then. Of course, it may be shorter (or longer) depending on how many people
join (or leave).

-Dan




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