[RC5] RC5-72 progress
Daniel Quintiliani
coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Fri Jul 30 05:09:49 EDT 2004
> Hello nations :)
>
> Hmmm.. I want to ask about our RC5-72 today progress: how long will
> it gets (I mean how much time) to complete RC5-72 project?
>
> I can't calculate it because I haven't got any information about
> increasing of CPU power. Where can I get an average count of Mkeys
> on which RC5-72 project increases every month (for example). Beacuse
> if you count an average time of completing RC5-72 using today's CPU
> power we can get about 1,000 years. But if we pognose some
> coefficient by which CPU power increases we can guess how time tith
> project wil get.
>
Funny you asked, I was just recently investigating that question myself.
We decided a while ago that Moore's Law (exponential growth of processing power, if it were true
for RC5-72, it would take 16-18 years to finish) didn't (necessarily) apply according to the
graphs at http://www1.distributed.net/~pstadt/rc5-72/ .
So I recently decided to go into Excel and plot the Gkeys/sec at every month from 12/02 until this
June.
I also calculated the average keys done per month using the following formula:
Gkeys/sec * 1000000000*60*60*24*(365.25/12)
I made a chart and set up a power trendline. I got this formula:
y = 43.34x^0.4438
I used that formula to predict the average keys done per month up until 912 years, the longest possible
time that RC5-72 could take.
I summed up the average keys per month and then came to the conclusion that at the current rate of
increasing processor power, RC5-72 will reach 100% in about...
169-170 YEARS! (after Dec 2002)
Wow! We'll all be dead by then. Of course, it may be shorter (or longer) depending on how many people
join (or leave).
-Dan
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