[RC5] RC5-72 progress

Daniel Quintiliani coredump0 at mercurylink.net
Fri Jul 30 23:20:27 EDT 2004


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> >   Hmmm.. I want to ask about our RC5-72 today progress: how long will
> >   it gets (I mean how much time) to complete RC5-72 project?

> 
> Funny you asked, I was just recently investigating that question myself. 
> 
> We decided a while ago that Moore's Law (exponential growth of processing 
> power, if it were true 
> for RC5-72, it would take 16-18 years to finish) didn't (necessarily) 
> apply according to the 
> graphs at http://www1.distributed.net/~pstadt/rc5-72/ . 
> So I recently decided to go into Excel and plot the Gkeys/sec at every 
> month from 12/02 until this 
> June.
> 
> I also calculated the average keys done per month using the following 
> formula: 
> Gkeys/sec * 1000000000*60*60*24*(365.25/12)
> 
> I made a chart and set up a power trendline. I got this formula:
> 
> y = 43.34x^0.4438
> 
> I used that formula to predict the average keys done per month up until 
> 912 years, the longest possible 
> time that RC5-72 could take.
> I summed up the average keys per month and then came to the conclusion 
> that at the current rate of 
> increasing processor power, RC5-72 will reach 100% in about...
> 
> 169-170 YEARS! (after Dec 2002)
> Wow! We'll all be dead by then. Of course, it may be shorter (or longer) 
> depending on how many people
> join (or leave).
> 

More like 386-387 years.

I just looked at it again, adding the first month of the project and the beginning
of the next month to the graph. (It's gone down about 20 GKeys/sec since last
month.)

I figured that while processor speed will increase, people will leave RC5-72 and/or
die before the project finishes, so I chose a logarithmic trendline (levels out) instead of
a power trendline (keeps increasing).

I got this formula:

y = 51.998Ln(x) + 0.6639
R^2 = 0.9221

That gives about 386 years 1 month to reach 100%.

What do you guys think?

- -Dan
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