[RC5] RC5-72 progress

adrian adream608 at mac.com
Fri Jul 30 23:38:32 EDT 2004


ok , what if everyone switched over to g4 or g5's and got the 
corresponding 6-7 fold increase in keys/s ?



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>>  >   Hmmm.. I want to ask about our RC5-72 today progress: how long will
>>  >   it gets (I mean how much time) to complete RC5-72 project?
>
>>
>>  Funny you asked, I was just recently investigating that question myself.
>>
>>  We decided a while ago that Moore's Law (exponential growth of processing
>>  power, if it were true
>>  for RC5-72, it would take 16-18 years to finish) didn't (necessarily)
>>  apply according to the
>>  graphs at http://www1.distributed.net/~pstadt/rc5-72/ .
>>  So I recently decided to go into Excel and plot the Gkeys/sec at every
>>  month from 12/02 until this
>>  June.
>>
>>  I also calculated the average keys done per month using the following
>>  formula:
>>  Gkeys/sec * 1000000000*60*60*24*(365.25/12)
>>
>>  I made a chart and set up a power trendline. I got this formula:
>>
>>  y = 43.34x^0.4438
>>
>>  I used that formula to predict the average keys done per month up until
>>  912 years, the longest possible
>>  time that RC5-72 could take.
>>  I summed up the average keys per month and then came to the conclusion
>>  that at the current rate of
>>  increasing processor power, RC5-72 will reach 100% in about...
>>
>>  169-170 YEARS! (after Dec 2002)
>>  Wow! We'll all be dead by then. Of course, it may be shorter (or longer)
>>  depending on how many people
>>  join (or leave).
>>
>
>More like 386-387 years.
>
>I just looked at it again, adding the first month of the project and 
>the beginning
>of the next month to the graph. (It's gone down about 20 GKeys/sec since last
>month.)
>
>I figured that while processor speed will increase, people will 
>leave RC5-72 and/or
>die before the project finishes, so I chose a logarithmic trendline 
>(levels out) instead of
>a power trendline (keeps increasing).
>
>I got this formula:
>
>y = 51.998Ln(x) + 0.6639
>R^2 = 0.9221
>
>That gives about 386 years 1 month to reach 100%.
>
>What do you guys think?
>
>- -Dan
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