[RC5] RC5-72 progress
adream608 at mac.com
Fri Jul 30 23:38:32 EDT 2004
ok , what if everyone switched over to g4 or g5's and got the
corresponding 6-7 fold increase in keys/s ?
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>> > Hmmm.. I want to ask about our RC5-72 today progress: how long will
>> > it gets (I mean how much time) to complete RC5-72 project?
>> Funny you asked, I was just recently investigating that question myself.
>> We decided a while ago that Moore's Law (exponential growth of processing
>> power, if it were true
>> for RC5-72, it would take 16-18 years to finish) didn't (necessarily)
>> apply according to the
>> graphs at http://www1.distributed.net/~pstadt/rc5-72/ .
>> So I recently decided to go into Excel and plot the Gkeys/sec at every
>> month from 12/02 until this
>> I also calculated the average keys done per month using the following
>> Gkeys/sec * 1000000000*60*60*24*(365.25/12)
>> I made a chart and set up a power trendline. I got this formula:
>> y = 43.34x^0.4438
>> I used that formula to predict the average keys done per month up until
>> 912 years, the longest possible
>> time that RC5-72 could take.
>> I summed up the average keys per month and then came to the conclusion
>> that at the current rate of
>> increasing processor power, RC5-72 will reach 100% in about...
>> 169-170 YEARS! (after Dec 2002)
>> Wow! We'll all be dead by then. Of course, it may be shorter (or longer)
>> depending on how many people
>> join (or leave).
>More like 386-387 years.
>I just looked at it again, adding the first month of the project and
>of the next month to the graph. (It's gone down about 20 GKeys/sec since last
>I figured that while processor speed will increase, people will
>leave RC5-72 and/or
>die before the project finishes, so I chose a logarithmic trendline
>(levels out) instead of
>a power trendline (keeps increasing).
>I got this formula:
>y = 51.998Ln(x) + 0.6639
>R^2 = 0.9221
>That gives about 386 years 1 month to reach 100%.
>What do you guys think?
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