[RC5] Exponential growth probably right

Daniel Quintiliani danq at ptd.net
Mon Oct 18 22:11:22 EDT 2004


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Remember I suggested that logarithmic growth was more accurate than exponential growth
at finding out when RC5-72 would end, and someone else suggested that linear growth was better?

I took out the infamous spreadsheet again the other day and again tonight.

I looked at the past total times which I recorded and noticed that the total time kept changing.
I looked at the average rate of change per month, and made a table.

About 17-18 years to reach 0 with the logarithmic estimate and 11-12 years to reach 0
with the linear estimate (which is less accurate according to the R^2 value)

I went back here <http://lists.distributed.net/pipermail/rc5/2003-October/040230.html> to get
the old formula for estimating the end of the project based on exponential growth.

t = 16.06094374 years (using current keyrate)

Also, remember that according to the original exponential calculations it was 17.20178906 years,
and according to a later calculation here <http://lists.distributed.net/pipermail/rc5/2004-January/040390.html>,
16.42712929 years.

So perhaps you guys were right and RC5-72 *will* finish within our lifetimes.

- --

- -Dan
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