[RC5] Exponential growth probably right
danq at ptd.net
Mon Oct 18 22:11:22 EDT 2004
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Remember I suggested that logarithmic growth was more accurate than exponential growth
at finding out when RC5-72 would end, and someone else suggested that linear growth was better?
I took out the infamous spreadsheet again the other day and again tonight.
I looked at the past total times which I recorded and noticed that the total time kept changing.
I looked at the average rate of change per month, and made a table.
About 17-18 years to reach 0 with the logarithmic estimate and 11-12 years to reach 0
with the linear estimate (which is less accurate according to the R^2 value)
I went back here <http://lists.distributed.net/pipermail/rc5/2003-October/040230.html> to get
the old formula for estimating the end of the project based on exponential growth.
t = 16.06094374 years (using current keyrate)
Also, remember that according to the original exponential calculations it was 17.20178906 years,
and according to a later calculation here <http://lists.distributed.net/pipermail/rc5/2004-January/040390.html>,
So perhaps you guys were right and RC5-72 *will* finish within our lifetimes.
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