[RC5] Long-term projects: exponential and logarithmic growth

Elektron elektron_rc5 at yahoo.ca
Mon Sep 6 11:29:47 EDT 2004


On 6 Sep, 2004, at 20:52, Daniel Quintiliani wrote:

> They're both pretty close. However, I still think logarithmic growth 
> is a better
> estimate. Besides people leaving and dying, not everyone upgrades their
> computers right away, and due to compatibility problems, this may be
> worse in the future. Just look at the problems to get XP adopted, the 
> fact that
> no one is downloading XP SP2 because it breaks apps, and the coming
> Longhorn/TCPA/NGSCB, which will obsolete everything and require all new
> hardware.

Software updates are irrelevant. Hardware updates are necessary. Even 
poor lil' me has never had the same primary computer for more than 
about five years. And with computers always getting faster, a lot of 
people will have to leave to keep the growth logarithmic.

It's hard to explain the almost zero growth in the RC5-64 keyrate 
though. And our current keyrate still isn't up to par with the latest 
rc5-64 keyrates, either. It really takes a few more years' worth of 
data to say much, since the surge of interest in the first year or so 
were likely due to people who already knew about d.net.

People who don't like like "trusted computing" will still need to buy 
new computers at one point or another (though they may end up just 
buying parts and installing win2k). Or someone will reverse-engineer 
all the "trusted computing" stuff. And try getting companies in other 
countries to trust Microsoft. It just doesn't work.

I'm pretty sure "trusted computing" is doomed. And if it isn't, well, 
then the world is doomed, so why are we worrying about the completion 
of RC5?

- Purr



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