# [RC5] Jubilee

Décio Luiz Gazzoni Filho decio at decpp.net
Sat Dec 3 23:16:50 EST 2005

```On Dec 4, 2005, at 2:00 AM, bert wrote:

> My brain hurts with trying to comprehend that math

Yeah, and what long and complicated words the guy used like
too!

Décio

PS: the calculations below are oversimplified -- it assumes an
`average' key cracking rate, and doesn't take into account whether a
given participant puts more or less effort into the project. It's
better to take your daily keyrate from the stats page and divide it
by the number of remaining keys, which is (1 - (% complete)/100)
*2^72. Now that's almost PhD-level mathematics!

>
> Bert
>
> rick at nickhart.com wrote:
>> Bill wrote:
>>> What money???
>> Why, the RC5 prize money, of course! http://www.distributed.net/
>> rc5/ I'm certain to win any day now. If I'm interpreting the stats
>> right: (my probability of winning in any given day) = (probabilty
>> of "this participant will find the key before anyone else does") *
>> (probability of "that we will wrap this thing up in the next 24
>> hours") A typical day: 1/5,863,376,223 = 1/15,341 * 1/382,203
>> There it is in black and white! Statistics never lie! -Rick
>> _______________________________________________ rc5 mailing list
>> rc5 at lists.distributed.net http://lists.distributed.net/mailman/
>> listinfo/rc5
> _______________________________________________
> rc5 mailing list
> rc5 at lists.distributed.net
> http://lists.distributed.net/mailman/listinfo/rc5

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