[RC5] Jubilee

Décio Luiz Gazzoni Filho decio at decpp.net
Sun Dec 4 09:34:52 EST 2005


On Dec 4, 2005, at 2:45 AM, David McNett wrote:

> On 3-Dec-2005, at 10:16p, Décio Luiz Gazzoni Filho wrote:
>> PS: the calculations below are oversimplified -- it assumes an  
>> `average' key cracking rate, and doesn't take into account whether  
>> a given participant puts more or less effort into the project.  
>> It's better to take your daily keyrate from the stats page and  
>> divide it by the number of remaining keys, which is (1 - (%  
>> complete)/100)*2^72. Now that's almost PhD-level mathematics!
>
> No, that's not necessary.  The quoted stat from the website (odds  
> of this participant finding the key) factors in that participant's  
> keyrate relative to the aggregate of all participants.  It does not  
> assume an average key cracking rate.

Indeed. I misread the original email as taking the number of active  
participants on that day, and not his keyrate. I guess I shouldn't be  
making jokes of other people's reading capability!

Décio

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