[RC5] Secret-Key Challenge status

SideWinder sidewinder at kolumbus.fi
Wed May 23 14:41:38 EDT 2007


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bert wrote:
> Décio Luiz Gazzoni Filho wrote:
>> Le May 23, 2007 à 1:04 PM, bert a écrit :
>> Sorry, but you're wrong. You're assuming that computing power and  
>> user base will remain constant in 15 years. I can foresee the user  
>> base shrinking further, but on the other hand, if we had a mere 500  
>> or so PS3s onboard (and nothing else), we would already meet your  
>> estimate. This is using today's hardware, without upgrading it for 15  
>> years -- who can tell what will come along in the meantime.
>>
>> RC5-72 will take long to finish, yes, but there's no need to exaggerate.
>>
>> Décio
>>   
> I'm not exaggerating.
> 
> Bert

Assuming

1) Moore's Law (roughly stated that the number of transistors in CPUs 
doubles every 2 years) holds in the future,
2) that the number of transistors parallels computing power as it has and
3) that the project is not shut down, but the same number of machines 
continues to participate,

then according to yesterday's keyrate, RC5-72 would take only 18 years 
to reach 100 % of the keyspace, with the key most likely being 
discovered a couple years before that.

However, personally I think it would be waste of computing resources and 
electricity. OGR is obviously more useful in terms of advancing science, 
but admittedly, it's not that appealing when compared to lots of 
distributed computing projects out there with really tangible and 
quickly relevant potential results (protein folding, quantum chemistry 
simulation, climate simulation, NEO tracking, etc.). Can Dnet really 
point to an obvious immediate use of confirming the shortest known 25 
mark ruler, or even finding a shorter one? Will someone actually change 
their practical applications, if a shorter ruler is found today?

The appeal of Dnet for me is currently mostly just about a stable, well 
behaving and easily maintainable client. I really wish new projects 
would start soon, almost any projects, to feel confident that I'm 
contributing to the "right system" for me.


- -- 

 >------->- SideWinder -<-------<

PGP key ID: 0x77CCE3D6

___Computer Science: solving today's problems tomorrow.


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